Massachusetts Senate Race

According to Rasmussen, Republican State Senator Scott Brown is within striking distance of Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley. They are competing to replace Senator Paul Kirk who was appointed to Senator Kennedy's seat. The special election will be held on January 19. The amazing stat from this poll is that Scott Brown is leading among independents by more than 40 points (65-21) but is still down 9 overall. If Brown somehow pulls of the political miracle of the decade (century?) he'll need to convince Democrats. I don't see that happening, but a close election here will be a huge win for Republicans.

Martha Coakley 50%
Scott Brown 41%

New Hampshire Senate Race

According to American Research Group, the top contenders for the Republican nomination in the New Hampshire Senate race both lead the likely Democratic nominee. On the Republican side, Ovide Lamontagne served as Chairman of the NH State Board of Education from 1993-1999 and was the GOP nominee for Governor in 1996 while Kelly Ayotte was the state's Attorney General until she stepped down in July. The leading Democratic nominee Paul Hodes has represented the 2nd district since 2006. The 2nd district contains the state capital in Concord and the largest city in the state, Nashua.

Ovide Lamontagne (R) 37%
Paul Hodes (D) 31%

Kelly Ayotte (R) 43%
Paul Hodes (D) 36%

Census 2010 Projections

The Washington Post posted a story yesterday about the projected winners and losers from the 2010 census with a map by Polidata. It confirms what we already knew, people are moving out of the northeast/rustbelt, and into the southeast/southwest. The census numbers are just projections at this point but the Congressional musical chairs will likely not change.

Winners:
Texas +4
South Carolina +1
Georgia +1
Florida +1
Washington +1
Arizona +1
Nevada +1
Utah +1

Losers:
Ohio -2
Massachusetts -1
New York -1
Pennsylvania -1
New Jersey -1
Michigan -1
Illinois -1
Iowa -1
Minnesota -1
Louisiana -1

SC Governors Race

According to a poll by Insider Advantage posted on Allheadlinenews.com (Dec. 20th), Lt. Governor Andre Bauer is tied with Attorney General Henry McMaster at 22% with State Rep. Nikki Haley, Rep. Gresham Barrett, and State Senator Larry Grooms all trailing. Among the six Democratic candidates listed on Politics1, only two were mentioned in the Insider Advantage poll:State Superintendent of Education Jim Rex and Lobbyist Dwight Drake.

Republican Primary:
Andre Bauer (R) 22%
Henry McMaster (R) 22%
Nikki Haley (R) 13%
Gresham Barrett (R) 9%
Larry Grooms (R) 6%

Democratic Primary:
Jim Rex (D) 21%
Dwight Drake (D) 15%

Kentucky Senate Race

According to CQ, Republicans are polling well in their bid to replace the retiring Jim Bunning. Both perspective Republican candidates, Secretary of State Trey Grayson and eye surgeon (and son of Rep Ron Paul) Rand Paul, lead the perspective Democratic candidates Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo.

Trey Grayson (R) 40%
Jack Conway (D) 33%

Trey Grayson (R) 44%
Daniel Mongiardo (D) 35%

Rand Paul (R) 42%
Jack Conway (D) 36%

Rand Paul (R) 42%
Daniel Mongiardo (D) 36%

Senator Dodd trailing

According to CQ, Senator Dodd's own internal polls show him tied with former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon and trailing former Rep. Rob Simmons. Linda McMahon released her own poll recently showing her with her up in the Republican primary race slightly over Rob Simmons with businessman Peter Schiff grabbing 4% of the action.

General election:
Senator Dodd (D) 46%
Linda McMahon (R) 46%

Senator Dodd (D) 46%
Rob Simmons (R) 51%

Republican Primary:
Linda McMahon 37%
Rob Simmons 35%
Businessman Peter Schiff 4%
Undecided 25%

MN-6: Bachmann Safe Against Unknown Opponents

According to Public Policy Polling, the controversial Michelle Bachmann looks to be doing well at this early stage. Her approval rating is only 53%, but she does well in the head-to-head match ups. Obama's numbers are low and Healthcare reform is not popular in the district, but the most likely explination of the numbes below is the extremely low voter identification of her opponents. The race should tighten as November approaches.

Michelle Bachmann (R ) 53%
Maureen Reed (D) 37%

Michelle Bachmann (R) 55%
Tarryl Clark (D) 37%