New Hampshire Senate Race

According to American Research Group, the top contenders for the Republican nomination in the New Hampshire Senate race both lead the likely Democratic nominee. On the Republican side, Ovide Lamontagne served as Chairman of the NH State Board of Education from 1993-1999 and was the GOP nominee for Governor in 1996 while Kelly Ayotte was the state's Attorney General until she stepped down in July. The leading Democratic nominee Paul Hodes has represented the 2nd district since 2006. The 2nd district contains the state capital in Concord and the largest city in the state, Nashua.

Ovide Lamontagne (R) 37%
Paul Hodes (D) 31%

Kelly Ayotte (R) 43%
Paul Hodes (D) 36%

Census 2010 Projections

The Washington Post posted a story yesterday about the projected winners and losers from the 2010 census with a map by Polidata. It confirms what we already knew, people are moving out of the northeast/rustbelt, and into the southeast/southwest. The census numbers are just projections at this point but the Congressional musical chairs will likely not change.

Winners:
Texas +4
South Carolina +1
Georgia +1
Florida +1
Washington +1
Arizona +1
Nevada +1
Utah +1

Losers:
Ohio -2
Massachusetts -1
New York -1
Pennsylvania -1
New Jersey -1
Michigan -1
Illinois -1
Iowa -1
Minnesota -1
Louisiana -1

SC Governors Race

According to a poll by Insider Advantage posted on Allheadlinenews.com (Dec. 20th), Lt. Governor Andre Bauer is tied with Attorney General Henry McMaster at 22% with State Rep. Nikki Haley, Rep. Gresham Barrett, and State Senator Larry Grooms all trailing. Among the six Democratic candidates listed on Politics1, only two were mentioned in the Insider Advantage poll:State Superintendent of Education Jim Rex and Lobbyist Dwight Drake.

Republican Primary:
Andre Bauer (R) 22%
Henry McMaster (R) 22%
Nikki Haley (R) 13%
Gresham Barrett (R) 9%
Larry Grooms (R) 6%

Democratic Primary:
Jim Rex (D) 21%
Dwight Drake (D) 15%

Kentucky Senate Race

According to CQ, Republicans are polling well in their bid to replace the retiring Jim Bunning. Both perspective Republican candidates, Secretary of State Trey Grayson and eye surgeon (and son of Rep Ron Paul) Rand Paul, lead the perspective Democratic candidates Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo.

Trey Grayson (R) 40%
Jack Conway (D) 33%

Trey Grayson (R) 44%
Daniel Mongiardo (D) 35%

Rand Paul (R) 42%
Jack Conway (D) 36%

Rand Paul (R) 42%
Daniel Mongiardo (D) 36%

Senator Dodd trailing

According to CQ, Senator Dodd's own internal polls show him tied with former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon and trailing former Rep. Rob Simmons. Linda McMahon released her own poll recently showing her with her up in the Republican primary race slightly over Rob Simmons with businessman Peter Schiff grabbing 4% of the action.

General election:
Senator Dodd (D) 46%
Linda McMahon (R) 46%

Senator Dodd (D) 46%
Rob Simmons (R) 51%

Republican Primary:
Linda McMahon 37%
Rob Simmons 35%
Businessman Peter Schiff 4%
Undecided 25%

MN-6: Bachmann Safe Against Unknown Opponents

According to Public Policy Polling, the controversial Michelle Bachmann looks to be doing well at this early stage. Her approval rating is only 53%, but she does well in the head-to-head match ups. Obama's numbers are low and Healthcare reform is not popular in the district, but the most likely explination of the numbes below is the extremely low voter identification of her opponents. The race should tighten as November approaches.

Michelle Bachmann (R ) 53%
Maureen Reed (D) 37%

Michelle Bachmann (R) 55%
Tarryl Clark (D) 37%

North Dakota: Dorgan Struggling

According to Rasmussen, Governor John Hoeven would easily defeat Senator Dorgan if he decides to run. The poll isn't a major surprise because Hoeven is popular (87% approval rating) while Obama (58% disapproval) and his Healthcare overhaul (64% oppose) are not.


Byron Dorgan (D) 36%
John Hoeven (R) 58%

NRSC Fight

According to The Hill, Senators DeMint and Cornyn are "locked in a battle" over the types of candidates the NRSC is supporting. Senator DeMint started the Senate Conservatives Fund to support conservative candidates he believes will "stand up and go where America is going." They must be Tea Party tested and DeMint approved. Don't think this is anything new, there are many examples of left/right campaign funds run by members of Congress. The Hill attempts to make a mountain out of a mole hill with colorful language. They describing the fissure as the two Senators "going toe-to-toe" but it goes on to quote Senator DeMint saying he doesn't fault Cornyn for backing center right candidates. Ferocious. They also point out that through November DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund has raised $1.3M while the NRSC raised $37M. Wonder if Senator Cornyn is worried?...

Some races with relatively competitive primaries.

California
DeMint: Chuck DeVore
NRSC: Carly Fiorina

Florida
DeMint: Marco Rubio
NRSC: Charlie Crist

New Hampshire
DeMint: Ovide Lamontagne
NRSC: Kelly Ayotte

Kentucky
DeMint; Rand Paul
NRSC: Trey Grayson

PA Senate Race

According to a Quinnipiac poll released on the 18th, Spector and Toomey are in a dead heat. Quinnipiac had Spector up 53-33 in May, but that has changed with Obama dipping below 50 in PA. Spector remains ahead of Congressman Sestak in the Democratic primary.

General Election:
Arlen Specter (D) 44%
Pat Toomey (R) 44%

Democratic Primary:
Arlen Specter (D) 53%
Joe Sestak (D) 33%

Missouri Senate Race

According to Rasmussen, Democrat Robin Carnahan leads Republican Roy Blunt by a slim very slim margin. With only 40% of Missouri voters favoring the health care reform being debated with 57% opposed (47% strongly oppose), it is impressive that Carnahan is leading.

Robin Carnahan (D) 46%
Roy Blunt (R) 44%

Georgia: Governors Race Primaries

Both polls were done by Rasmussen.

Republicans:
John Oxendine 28%
Karen Handel 14%
Nathan Deal 13%
Eric Johnson 2%
Austin Scott 2%
Ray McBerry 2%
Jeff Chapman 2%

Democrats:
Roy Barnes 48%
Thurbert Baker 17%
David Poythress 4%
Dubose Porter 3%
Carol Camon 1%

Florida Update: Senate and Governor's Office

According to Rasmussen, potential GOP nominees Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist both stand up well against Democrat Kendrik Meeks

Senate:
Marco Rubio (R) 49%
Kendrick Meek (D) 35%

Charlie Crist (R) 42%
Kendrick Meek (D) 36%

The race to replace Crist in the corner office looks like it will tight with the edge going to the Republicans. Bill McCollum is a former rep and Alex Sink is looking to become Florida's first female governor.

Governor:
Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) 44%
State Treasurer Alex Sink (D) 39%
Alternate Candidate 5%
Undecided 12%

Thune is Safe While Sandlin Struggles

According to Public Policy Poling, Senator John Thune (R-SD) should sleep well knowing he is in good shape for 2010 while Rep. Herseth Sandlin may be in for a tough fight.

Thune (R) 56%
Generic Democrat 33%

Thune Approval Rating:
Approve 57%
Disapprove 35%

Thune leads 86-9 with Republicans, 44-37, with independents and does fairly well with Democrats fetching 22% approval.

Rep. Stephanie Heseth Sandlin's numbers are holding up fairly well considering 60% of people in South Dakota disapprove of the job Democrats are doing in Congress. This isn't a surprise because healthcare reform, the biggest issue in Congress at the moment, registers 59% disapproval.

Rep. Herseth Sandlin (D) 46%
Secretary of State Chris Nelson (R) 39%

Generic Polls Not Saying Much

According to Politico, a new poll out today by the new George Washington University Battleground Poll conducted by the Terrance Group and Lake Research Partner, Republican congressional candidates hold a 2 percentage advantage over the Democrats. A Gallup poll release yesterday had Democrats leading Republicans by 3.

Without seeing the crosstabs, it seems fairly obvious that neither party label has an advantage at this point. The polls are showing conflicting data and are within the margin of error.

Throw in a Rasmussen poll with Republicans up 7 and you have confusing generic poll party.

Pennsylvania's Goverors Race

A Rasmussen poll published yesterday shows Republican Attorney General Tom Corbett ahead Democrats and GOP primary rival (Scranton Mayor Christopher Doherty and former Congressman Joe Hoeffel). Corbett also leads the Democratic field (Allegheney County Chief Exec Dan Oorato and Auditor General Jack Wagner).

General Election:
Corbett (R) 43%
Wagner (D) 30%

Corbett (R) 44%
Onorato (D) 28%


GOP Primary:
Corbett (R) 48%
Hoeffel (D) 26%

Corbett (R) 46%
Doherty (D) 23%

Colorado's Governor's Race

Rasmussen Poll out yesterday shows Democratic Governor Bill Ritter trailing former Republican Congressman Scott McInnis.


Bill Ritter (D) 40%
Scott McInnis (R) 48%